SAFE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAFE - Safehold Inc.
$14.42
0.25 (1.76%)
▲
5d:
-5.19%
30d:
-6.85%
90d:
-10.49%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SAFE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SAFE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.97
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAFE is currently trading at $14.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.73 to $15.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.82 (+30.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.82 (+30.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.73 -
$15.73
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($18.82)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.73 -
$15.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.16
Resistance Level
$15.78
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.19
Wall Street Target
$18.82
(+30.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.25
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$14.08
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$13.91
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$14.44
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$45.95
(+219%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 5.7%)
$17.02
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 5.7%)
$14.47
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$17.76
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$16.14
(+12%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$9.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$14.97
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAFE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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