CTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTO - CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
$20.08
0.16 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
-1.08%
30d:
+2.08%
90d:
+8.54%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 28.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 28.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTO is currently trading at $20.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.43 to $20.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.0) compared to its historical average (94.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 28.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1200.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$19.43 -
$20.30
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.43 -
$20.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.68
Resistance Level
$20.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.03
Wall Street Target
$23.00
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1200.1%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-28.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.0 vs 94.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-28.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.07
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$16.26
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.64
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→95)
$39.49
(+97%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.0, Growth: 27.4%)
$41.52
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 27.4%)
$26.13
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 27.4%)
$22.21
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (100x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 99.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$43.82
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 109.6
Base Case
$39.84
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 99.6
Bear Case
$13.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 84.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.0 to 94.5
Stabilization Target:
$54.18
(+169.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+169.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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