ETSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$76.97
4.14 (5.68%)
▲
5d:
-0.94%
30d:
+10.38%
90d:
+54.03%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ETSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ETSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.23
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $76.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.00 to $75.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$67.00 -
$75.67
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ETSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.7%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($72.71)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with 3.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.00 -
$75.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.67
Resistance Level
$70.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.11
Wall Street Target
$72.71
(-5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.97
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$78.98
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$80.01
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$77.04
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$129.22
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$113.37
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 13.8%)
$96.37
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$123.64
(+61%)
Analyst growth 54.3%, PE expands to 30.7
Base Case
$112.40
(+46%)
Market implied 54.3%, PE stable at 27.9
Bear Case
$49.52
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Josh Silverman
SELL
70000 shares
2026-04-21
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SELL
30369 shares
2026-04-20
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SELL
24296 shares
2026-04-16
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