ETSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$59.92
1.85 (3.19%)
▲
5d:
+0.1%
30d:
-3.2%
90d:
+35.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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1 traders called ETSY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ETSY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ETSY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.19
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.18
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $59.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.13 to $65.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.29, while resistance sits at $66.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.72 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.29, while resistance sits at $66.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.72 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$56.13 -
$65.07
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($71.72)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.13 -
$65.07
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.29
Resistance Level
$66.51
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.73
Wall Street Target
$71.72
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 18.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.54
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$49.36
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$45.51
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$58.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.8%)
$121.60
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 11.8%)
$81.18
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 11.8%)
$69.00
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$96.57
(+66%)
Analyst growth 51.0%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$87.79
(+51%)
Market implied 51.0%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$39.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$74.10
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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