EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$143.20
1.98 (1.40%)
▲
5d:
+1.89%
30d:
-1.26%
90d:
-5.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
EXPD is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-05-15 with 1,834 OI. Call ratio: 93% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXPD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$214.57
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $143.20, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.06 to $148.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (24.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $140.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $140.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$141.06 -
$148.24
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($139.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$141.06 -
$148.24
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.96
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.39
Resistance Level
$148.51
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.61
Wall Street Target
$139.29
(-1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.5%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 24.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.15
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$129.34
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$123.77
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$140.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.9%)
$183.93
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.6, Growth: 7.9%)
$177.42
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 7.9%)
$150.80
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.96
Bull Case
$176.55
(+26%)
Analyst growth 9.7%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$160.50
(+14%)
Market implied 9.7%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$99.52
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 24.6
Stabilization Target:
$160.79
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark A Emmert
SELL
5400 shares
2025-11-07
Jeffrey F Dickerman
SELL
1500 shares
2025-11-05
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