FAF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAF - First American Financial Corporation
$63.18
-0.88 (-1.37%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.47
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.94
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAF is currently trading at $63.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.47 to $63.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.06, while resistance sits at $66.70.
Market Sentiment: FAF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.80 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.06, while resistance sits at $66.70.
Market Sentiment: FAF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.80 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$60.47 -
$63.60
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($76.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$60.47 -
$63.60
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.06
Resistance Level
$66.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.60
Wall Street Target
$76.80
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
40.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.38
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$64.70
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$65.03
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.39
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.8%)
$178.25
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 9.8%)
$84.76
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 9.8%)
$72.04
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$92.51
(+44%)
Analyst growth 29.9%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$84.10
(+31%)
Market implied 29.9%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$44.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Margaret M Mccarthy
SELL
3500 shares
2025-08-13
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