FER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FER - Ferrovial SE Ordinary Shares
$67.99
-0.12 (-0.18%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FER shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FER shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.93
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.59
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FER is currently trading at $67.99, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.41 to $68.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 55.6) is in line with its historical norms (56.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FER is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FER is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$65.41 -
$68.06
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($72.54)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$65.41 -
$68.06
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.55
Resistance Level
$69.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
55.56
Wall Street Target
$72.54
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.6%
Profit Margin
36.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
55.6 vs 56.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.77
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$67.43
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$67.09
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 56→57)
$68.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 55.6, Growth: 24.4%)
$131.07
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.4%)
$52.60
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 24.4%)
$44.71
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.61
Bull Case
$37.56
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$34.14
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$46.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 55.6 to 56.5
Stabilization Target:
$69.26
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
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Advanced FER Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FER price and gamma walls.
