FICO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FICO - Fair Isaac Corporation
$1061.99
-5.55 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
+1.81%
30d:
-26.66%
90d:
-39.17%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
FICO is down 10.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $1400 2026-05-15 with 626 OI. Call ratio: 84% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FICO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FICO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2593.13
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1610.13
34.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FICO is currently trading at $1061.99, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1059.01 to $1378.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (31.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $969.32, while resistance sits at $1193.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1872.18 (+76.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $969.32, while resistance sits at $1193.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1872.18 (+76.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$1059.01 -
$1378.91
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
48th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 48th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.3% below Wall St target ($1872.18)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$1059.01 -
$1378.91
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$92.60
(8.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$969.32
Resistance Level
$1193.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.94
Wall Street Target
$1872.18
(+76.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 31.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$955.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$860.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$774.19
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→31)
$1203.72
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 27.3%)
$2455.30
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.3%)
$2190.33
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 27.3%)
$1861.78
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $27.06
Bull Case
$2445.92
(+130%)
Analyst growth 97.2%, PE expands to 45.8
Base Case
$2223.56
(+109%)
Market implied 97.2%, PE stable at 41.7
Bear Case
$766.78
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 31.0
Stabilization Target:
$1651.20
(+55.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FICO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eva Manolis
SELL
520 shares
2026-02-25
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
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Advanced FICO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FICO price and gamma walls.
