FR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FR - First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.
$60.83
-0.50 (-0.82%)
▼
5d:
-3.06%
30d:
-2.52%
90d:
+3.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
FR is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-06-18 with 197 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: FR shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 16th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.4% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: FR shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 16th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.4% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.94
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FR is currently trading at $60.83, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.48 to $63.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.1) is in line with its historical norms (32.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$60.48 -
$63.02
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
16th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($66.93)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.48 -
$63.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.96
(3.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.25
Resistance Level
$63.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.10
Wall Street Target
$66.93
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
199.7%
Profit Margin
46.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
33.1 vs 32.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.58
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$61.82
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$62.07
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$61.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.1, Growth: -3.4%)
$55.26
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: -3.4%)
$36.79
(-40%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: -3.4%)
$31.27
(-49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 23.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.59
Bull Case
$48.68
(-21%)
Analyst growth -28.5%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$44.25
(-28%)
Market implied -28.5%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$42.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is FR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Johannson L Yap
SELL
680 shares
2025-12-17
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Advanced FR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FR price and gamma walls.
