FWRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock
$16.85
0.73 (4.53%)
▲
5d:
+5.12%
30d:
+9.63%
90d:
+2.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FWRG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FWRG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.97
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FWRG is currently trading at $16.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.52 to $16.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 51.1) is in line with its historical norms (47.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.18 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.18 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$15.52 -
$16.61
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.6% below Wall St target ($22.18)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.52 -
$16.61
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.56
Resistance Level
$17.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.11
Wall Street Target
$22.18
(+31.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.4%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
51.1 vs 47.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$17.67
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$18.09
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→48)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.1, Growth: 108.7%)
$56.87
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 108.7%)
$24.81
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 108.7%)
$21.09
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (115x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (51x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 114.94 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.15
Bull Case
$20.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 120.7
Base Case
$16.85
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 114.9
Bear Case
$12.89
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 103.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 04, 2026 2:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FWRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
International L.P. Advent
SELL
4400000 shares
2025-09-08
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