GEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEL - Genesis Energy, L.P.
$16.10
0.36 (2.29%)
▲
5d:
-2.31%
30d:
-6.72%
90d:
-5.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GEL trades at premium valuation expecting 51.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: GEL trades at premium valuation expecting 51.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEL is currently trading at $16.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.36 to $17.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 53.7) compared to its historical average (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 51.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.55, while resistance sits at $17.32.
Market Sentiment: GEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.33 (+20.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.55, while resistance sits at $17.32.
Market Sentiment: GEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.33 (+20.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.36 -
$17.54
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.1% below Wall St target ($19.33)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 51.3% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.36 -
$17.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.55
Resistance Level
$17.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
53.67
Wall Street Target
$19.33
(+20.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.6%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+51.3% premium
PE vs Historical
53.7 vs 15.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+51.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.15
(+50%)
2-Year Target
$36.23
(+125%)
3-Year Target
$54.34
(+238%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 54→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.69
(-3%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 53.7, Growth: 400.0%)
$54.34
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 400.0%)
$22.32
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 400.0%)
$15.69
(-3%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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