GENI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GENI - Genius Sports Limited
$4.55
0.00 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
+3.06%
30d:
-24.75%
90d:
-58.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
GENI is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-05-15 with 675 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GENI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GENI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.94
49.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $4.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.55 to $5.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (26.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.19, while resistance sits at $4.83.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.76 (+159.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.19, while resistance sits at $4.83.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.76 (+159.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$4.55 -
$5.92
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 159.1% below Wall St target ($11.76)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.55 -
$5.92
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.19
Resistance Level
$4.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.36
Wall Street Target
$11.76
(+159.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.0%
Profit Margin
-16.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 26.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.09
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.68
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.31
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→26)
$5.62
(+24%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 277.0%)
$22.30
(+391%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 277.0%)
$15.32
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 277.0%)
$13.02
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 26.1
Stabilization Target:
$7.72
(+69.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+69.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 11:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GENI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GENI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.
