GGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGG - Graco Inc
$75.63
0.32 (0.42%)
▲
5d:
-0.12%
30d:
-7.97%
90d:
-18.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GGG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GGG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.84
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGG is currently trading at $75.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.56 to $84.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (25.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$76.56 -
$84.84
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($92.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.56 -
$84.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.24
Resistance Level
$79.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.40
Wall Street Target
$92.00
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.8%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 25.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.53
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$69.56
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$66.70
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$75.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$98.10
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.1%)
$96.30
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 9.1%)
$81.86
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.06
Bull Case
$91.41
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.3%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$83.10
(+10%)
Market implied 10.3%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$51.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 25.4
Stabilization Target:
$85.76
(+13.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 6:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Angela F Wordell
SELL
2832 shares
2026-02-06
Timothy R White
SELL
1469 shares
2026-02-04
J Kevin Gilligan
SELL
12870 shares
2026-02-03
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