GHG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHG - GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$1.17
0.02 (1.74%)
▲
5d:
-2.5%
30d:
-8.59%
90d:
-18.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GHG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GHG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.92
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.19
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHG is currently trading at $1.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.20 to $1.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.4) compared to its historical average (2.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GHG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+213.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GHG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+213.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1.20 -
$1.27
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 213.0% below Wall St target ($3.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1.20 -
$1.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1.15
Resistance Level
$1.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.35
Wall Street Target
$3.60
(+213.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.6%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 2.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.09
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$1.03
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$0.97
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$1.16
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.24
Bull Case
$2.62
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 5.5
Base Case
$2.38
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 5.0
Bear Case
$0.81
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.3 to 2.8
Stabilization Target:
$1.37
(+19.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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