GHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHM - Graham Corporation
$98.28
-0.52 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
+0.09%
30d:
+8.04%
90d:
+16.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
GHM is up 3.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $80 2026-06-18 with 13 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GHM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GHM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHM is currently trading at $98.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.12 to $98.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 49.4) is in line with its historical norms (45.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.44, while resistance sits at $103.53.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.44, while resistance sits at $103.53.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$92.12 -
$98.16
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GHM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($100.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$92.12 -
$98.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.06
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.44
Resistance Level
$103.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
49.39
Wall Street Target
$100.25
(+2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
78.6%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
49.4 vs 45.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.42
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$104.67
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$108.02
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 49→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.42
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 49.4, Growth: 45.5%)
$302.86
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 45.5%)
$135.34
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 45.5%)
$115.04
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (49x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 50.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.96
Bull Case
$118.67
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 52.8
Base Case
$98.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 50.3
Bear Case
$75.18
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 45.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GHM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GHM price and gamma walls.
