GHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHM - Graham Corporation
$115.42
-4.02 (-3.37%)
▼
5d:
-6.03%
30d:
+8.77%
90d:
+41.01%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GHM trades at premium valuation expecting 7.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: GHM trades at premium valuation expecting 7.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHM is currently trading at $115.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.06 to $116.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 58.0) compared to its historical average (46.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $110.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: GHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.75 (+13.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $110.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: GHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.75 (+13.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$100.06 -
$116.76
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GHM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($130.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.4% growth with 13.0% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.06 -
$116.76
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.58
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.00
Resistance Level
$110.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
58.00
Wall Street Target
$130.75
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.4%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.4% premium
PE vs Historical
58.0 vs 46.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.96
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$133.13
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$142.99
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 58→47)
PE COMPRESSION
$115.38
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 58.0, Growth: 45.5%)
$355.68
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 45.5%)
$133.56
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 45.5%)
$113.53
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (58x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 62.89 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.84
Bull Case
$139.37
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 66.0
Base Case
$115.42
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 62.9
Bear Case
$88.30
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 56.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GHM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GHM price and gamma walls.
