GOOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GOOS - Canada Goose Holdings Inc.
$9.89
-0.79 (-7.40%)
▼
5d:
-16.96%
30d:
-13.93%
90d:
-17.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GOOS is down 17.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GOOS is down 17.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.22
30.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GOOS is currently trading at $9.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.87 to $11.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.5) compared to its historical average (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.87 -
$11.90
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -17.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.87 -
$11.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.48
Resistance Level
$12.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.46
Wall Street Target
$10.00
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 16.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.33
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$8.79
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$8.29
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$9.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 25.7%)
$32.18
(+225%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 25.7%)
$19.65
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 25.7%)
$16.70
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 9.12 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.08
Bull Case
$11.94
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$9.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$7.57
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$11.76
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GOOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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