GPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPI - Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
$327.62
-3.17 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-1.17%
30d:
+0.32%
90d:
-16.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$562.86
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$349.49
6.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPI is currently trading at $327.62, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $309.88 to $331.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $335.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GPI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $442.45 (+33.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $335.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GPI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $442.45 (+33.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$309.88 -
$331.65
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.8% below Wall St target ($442.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$309.88 -
$331.65
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$16.62
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$313.12
Resistance Level
$335.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.94
Wall Street Target
$442.45
(+33.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.2%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 8.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$315.24
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$300.43
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$286.31
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$329.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$1509.13
(+356%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$468.84
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$398.51
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $25.12
Bull Case
$664.66
(+106%)
Analyst growth 89.8%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$604.24
(+88%)
Market implied 89.8%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$216.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$381.12
(+15.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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