GPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPI - Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
$354.26
-8.90 (-2.45%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$505.62
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$313.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPI is currently trading at $354.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $384.07 to $407.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $351.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $463.00 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $351.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $463.00 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$384.07 -
$407.62
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GPI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($463.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$384.07 -
$407.62
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.47
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$351.28
Resistance Level
$413.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.26
Wall Street Target
$463.00
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.4%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$350.81
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$338.88
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$327.36
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$360.56
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.6%)
$1154.31
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 5.6%)
$427.67
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 5.6%)
$363.52
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.62
Bull Case
$669.69
(+89%)
Analyst growth 53.6%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$608.81
(+72%)
Market implied 53.6%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$269.56
(-24%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$399.99
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lincoln Pereira
SELL
7000 shares
2025-08-26
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