GPRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPRE - Green Plains, Inc.
$15.51
-0.35 (-2.21%)
▼
5d:
+4.16%
30d:
-3.9%
90d:
-4.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPRE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -34.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPRE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -34.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.47
Based on -6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.06
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPRE is currently trading at $15.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.69 to $15.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (36.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 34.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.40, while resistance sits at $16.57.
Market Sentiment: GPRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.40, while resistance sits at $16.57.
Market Sentiment: GPRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$14.69 -
$15.71
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.69 -
$15.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.37
(8.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.41
Resistance Level
$16.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.15
Wall Street Target
$16.57
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.5%
Profit Margin
-0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-34.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 36.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-34.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.56
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.31
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→36)
$40.42
(+161%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -16.2%)
$24.25
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -16.2%)
$11.31
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -16.2%)
$9.61
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 36.3
Stabilization Target:
$55.45
(+257.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+257.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GPRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GPRE price and gamma walls.
