GPRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPRE - Green Plains, Inc.
$16.68
-0.13 (-0.77%)
▼
5d:
+1.34%
30d:
+8.24%
90d:
+19.83%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
GPRE is down 8.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $20 2026-06-18 with 641 OI. Call ratio: 87% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 34.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 34.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.08
Based on -12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPRE is currently trading at $16.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.51 to $17.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (44.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 34.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.09, while resistance sits at $18.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.09, while resistance sits at $18.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.51 -
$17.35
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.51 -
$17.35
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.09
Resistance Level
$18.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.67
Wall Street Target
$16.43
(-1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.5%
Profit Margin
-0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-34.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 44.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-34.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.01
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.51
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.16
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→44)
$42.31
(+154%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -29.1%)
$21.15
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: -29.1%)
$12.16
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: -29.1%)
$10.34
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 44.1
Stabilization Target:
$58.04
(+248.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+248.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GPRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GPRE price and gamma walls.
