GRPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRPN - Groupon, Inc.Common Stock
$10.97
0.50 (4.78%)
▲
5d:
-4.19%
30d:
-13.07%
90d:
-39.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
GRPN is up 18.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $10 2026-05-15 with 613 OI. Put ratio: 97% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRPN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.3% annual earnings decline despite 109% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRPN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.3% annual earnings decline despite 109% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.54
29.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRPN is currently trading at $10.97, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.75 to $12.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 109.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRPN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.27, while resistance sits at $11.73. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.33 (+112.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRPN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.27, while resistance sits at $11.73. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.33 (+112.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$10.75 -
$12.73
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 112.7% below Wall St target ($23.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.75 -
$12.73
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.27
Resistance Level
$11.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.23
Wall Street Target
$23.33
(+112.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.2%
Profit Margin
-16.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 7.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.39
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.84
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.32
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$10.91
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 44.3%)
$118.10
(+977%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 44.3%)
$32.94
(+200%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 44.3%)
$28.00
(+155%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.85
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GRPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRPN price and gamma walls.
