GTES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GTES - Gates Industrial Corporation plc
$24.40
-1.27 (-4.95%)
▼
5d:
-6.48%
30d:
-1.85%
90d:
-12.76%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GTES shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GTES shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.01
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.84
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GTES is currently trading at $24.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.28 to $26.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GTES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.08 (+27.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GTES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.08 (+27.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.28 -
$26.09
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($31.08)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.28 -
$26.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.08
Resistance Level
$26.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.06
Wall Street Target
$31.08
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 13.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.96
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$23.53
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$23.11
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$24.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.5%)
$61.87
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 14.5%)
$36.62
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 14.5%)
$31.12
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.95
Bull Case
$54.90
(+125%)
Analyst growth 96.7%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$49.91
(+105%)
Market implied 96.7%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$17.26
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$25.78
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GTES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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