GXO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GXO - GXO Logistics, Inc.
$56.59
-1.32 (-2.28%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GXO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GXO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.16
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.33
6.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GXO is currently trading at $56.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.00 to $57.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GXO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+16.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GXO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+16.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$54.00 -
$57.42
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GXO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($66.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$54.00 -
$57.42
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.95
Resistance Level
$58.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.85
Wall Street Target
$66.00
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.6%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 17.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.61
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$58.65
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$59.70
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$56.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.5%)
$120.06
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 21.5%)
$101.51
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 21.5%)
$86.28
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 19.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.95
Bull Case
$68.33
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$56.59
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$43.29
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 11:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GXO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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