HOV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOV - Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Class A
$112.65
-2.61 (-2.26%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$204.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.26
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOV is currently trading at $112.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.66 to $121.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.4) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$100.66 -
$121.98
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($120.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -16.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$100.66 -
$121.98
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.65
Resistance Level
$127.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.38
Wall Street Target
$120.00
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-91.1%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
27.4 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.38
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$115.49
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$115.61
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$115.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.4, Growth: 2376.5%)
$389.00
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 2376.5%)
$316.86
(+175%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 2376.5%)
$269.33
(+134%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.43
Bull Case
$70.26
(-38%)
Analyst growth -43.3%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$63.87
(-43%)
Market implied -43.3%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$76.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ara K Hovnanian
SELL
609 shares
2025-08-28
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HOV price and gamma walls.
