HRB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRB - H&R Block, Inc.
$31.64
0.43 (1.38%)
▲
5d:
+0.19%
30d:
+3.33%
90d:
-27.71%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.00
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.15
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRB is currently trading at $31.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.22 to $31.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRB is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.00 (+29.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRB is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.00 (+29.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$30.22 -
$31.54
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.6% below Wall St target ($41.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$30.22 -
$31.54
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.99
Resistance Level
$32.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.67
Wall Street Target
$41.00
(+29.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.80
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$28.08
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$26.45
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$31.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$173.03
(+447%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$43.92
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 11.5%)
$37.33
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.28
Bull Case
$45.57
(+44%)
Analyst growth 30.3%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$41.43
(+31%)
Market implied 30.3%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$21.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$37.93
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey J Jones II
SELL
128818 shares
2025-11-19
Jeffrey J Jones II
SELL
176449 shares
2025-11-12
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