HRB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRB - H&R Block, Inc.
$39.45
0.58 (1.49%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.22
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.01
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRB is currently trading at $39.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.39 to $44.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.00 (+41.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.00 (+41.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$40.39 -
$44.04
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.5% below Wall St target ($55.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.39 -
$44.04
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.35
Resistance Level
$42.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.11
Wall Street Target
$55.00
(+41.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.6%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.59
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$36.35
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$35.15
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$39.06
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.5%)
$164.30
(+323%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 10.5%)
$52.38
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 10.5%)
$44.52
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$53.50
(+36%)
Analyst growth 24.5%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$48.63
(+23%)
Market implied 24.5%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$26.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$43.19
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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