HRL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$25.00
0.12 (0.48%)
▲
5d:
-3.92%
30d:
+7.07%
90d:
+13.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.83
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $25.00, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.87 to $25.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$22.87 -
$25.43
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.87 -
$25.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.90
Resistance Level
$24.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.02
Wall Street Target
$26.75
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.1%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.55
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$26.11
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$26.69
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.5%)
$38.77
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 4.5%)
$28.52
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 4.5%)
$24.24
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.85
Bull Case
$50.25
(+101%)
Analyst growth 83.6%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$45.68
(+83%)
Market implied 83.6%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$16.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-13
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Advanced HRL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HRL price and gamma walls.
