HRL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$20.00
0.09 (0.45%)
▲
5d:
-3.61%
30d:
-3.19%
90d:
-14.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
12d
Smart Money Accumulation
HRL is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $26 2026-06-18 with 1,139 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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1 traders called HRL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HRL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HRL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.72
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $20.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.46 to $21.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HRL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.75 (+33.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HRL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.75 (+33.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.46 -
$21.50
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HRL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.8% below Wall St target ($26.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.46 -
$21.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.81
Resistance Level
$21.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.73
Wall Street Target
$26.75
(+33.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.94
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$17.94
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$16.99
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$20.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 6.9%)
$42.33
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 6.9%)
$24.45
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$20.78
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.89
Bull Case
$38.67
(+93%)
Analyst growth 76.6%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$35.15
(+76%)
Market implied 76.6%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$13.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$23.57
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-13
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Advanced HRL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HRL price and gamma walls.
