IPGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IPGP - IPG Photonics Corporation
$114.59
6.90 (6.41%)
▲
5d:
-8.84%
30d:
-15.21%
90d:
+57.14%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
IPGP is down 5.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-04-17 with 35 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IPGP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: IPGP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IPGP is currently trading at $114.59, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.02 to $130.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 44.4) compared to its historical average (51.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 69.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IPGP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $106.26, while resistance sits at $131.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.75 (+26.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IPGP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $106.26, while resistance sits at $131.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.75 (+26.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$114.02 -
$130.62
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
87.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding IPGP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($144.75)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.8% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$114.02 -
$130.62
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.51
(10.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.26
Resistance Level
$131.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.41
Wall Street Target
$144.75
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
69.3%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
44.4 vs 51.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.86
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$103.42
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$98.25
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→52)
$114.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.4, Growth: 45.4%)
$352.31
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 45.4%)
$177.29
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 45.4%)
$150.69
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (67x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 66.67 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.79
Bull Case
$143.87
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 70.0
Base Case
$119.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 66.7
Bear Case
$91.15
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 60.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 44.4 to 51.8
Stabilization Target:
$133.64
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 8:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IPGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mary E Buttarazzi
SELL
500 shares
2026-03-17
Eric Meurice
SELL
750 shares
2026-02-02
Eugene A Scherbakov
SELL
2700 shares
2026-01-21
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Advanced IPGP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's IPGP price and gamma walls.
