ITRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITRI - Itron Inc
$79.24
-2.29 (-2.81%)
▼
5d:
-3.21%
30d:
-18.31%
90d:
-11.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ITRI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ITRI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.05
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.34
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITRI is currently trading at $79.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.24 to $94.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITRI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITRI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.70 (+59.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITRI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITRI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.70 (+59.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$82.24 -
$94.39
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.9% below Wall St target ($126.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.24 -
$94.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.56
Resistance Level
$86.93
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.98
Wall Street Target
$126.70
(+59.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.9%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.93
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$68.98
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$64.36
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$78.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$199.13
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 10.9%)
$108.11
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.9%)
$91.90
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.26
Bull Case
$94.74
(+20%)
Analyst growth 5.6%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$86.13
(+9%)
Market implied 5.6%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$55.44
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$97.21
(+22.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 5:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joan S Hooper
SELL
3533 shares
2026-02-26
Donald L Reeves III
SELL
519 shares
2026-02-25
David Marshall Wright
SELL
264 shares
2026-02-20
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