ITW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$272.76
3.79 (1.41%)
▲
5d:
+0.8%
30d:
+9.73%
90d:
+4.69%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$356.47
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$221.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $272.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $250.26 to $266.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $257.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $257.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$250.26 -
$266.79
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($277.55)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$250.26 -
$266.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.73
(3.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$242.05
Resistance Level
$257.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.40
Wall Street Target
$277.55
(+1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Profit Margin
19.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 22.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$273.58
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$274.40
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$275.22
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$272.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$337.93
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.4%)
$328.51
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 7.4%)
$279.23
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.76
Bull Case
$334.75
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$304.32
(+12%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$182.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shelley Moore Capito
SELL
2026-02-24
Axel Beck
SELL
4223 shares
2026-02-05
Ernest Scott Santi
SELL
167345 shares
2026-02-04
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Advanced ITW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.
