ITW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.
$250.77
0.67 (0.27%)
▲
5d:
-1.86%
30d:
-5.15%
90d:
-15.99%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ITW is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $280 2026-06-18 with 387 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$358.63
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$222.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITW is currently trading at $250.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $255.00 to $271.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $249.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $249.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ITW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$255.00 -
$271.32
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
27th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 27th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($275.04)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$255.00 -
$271.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.34
(3.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$249.07
Resistance Level
$262.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.65
Wall Street Target
$275.04
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Profit Margin
19.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 22.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$243.75
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$236.92
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$230.29
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$250.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$330.08
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$309.33
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$262.93
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.78
Bull Case
$309.85
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.6%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$281.69
(+12%)
Market implied 12.6%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$170.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 22.5
Stabilization Target:
$273.18
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shelley Moore Capito
SELL
2026-02-24
Axel Beck
SELL
4223 shares
2026-02-05
Ernest Scott Santi
SELL
167345 shares
2026-02-04
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Advanced ITW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ITW price and gamma walls.
