JAKK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JAKK - Jakks Pacific Inc
$18.27
-0.53 (-2.82%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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1 traders called JAKK this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JAKK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JAKK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.10
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JAKK is currently trading at $18.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.15 to $19.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+51.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JAKK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+51.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$17.15 -
$19.07
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.6% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.4% growth with -34.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.15 -
$19.07
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.66
(9.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.10
Resistance Level
$19.56
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.79
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+51.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$19.71
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$20.19
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 229.8%)
$208.48
(+1009%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 229.8%)
$63.45
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 229.8%)
$53.93
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.47
Bull Case
$41.12
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.7
Base Case
$37.38
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.8
Bear Case
$12.71
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JAKK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JAKK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JAKK price and gamma walls.
