MAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$15.11
0.29 (1.96%)
▲
5d:
+0.73%
30d:
+1.82%
90d:
-4.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
MAT is up 3.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $14 2026-07-17 with 15,727 OI. Put ratio: 83% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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1 traders called MAT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.49
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.69
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $15.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.60 to $15.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.71 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.71 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.60 -
$15.09
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($18.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.60 -
$15.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.58
Resistance Level
$15.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.40
Wall Street Target
$18.71
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.17
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$13.54
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$12.95
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$14.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.9%)
$56.87
(+284%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 17.9%)
$24.26
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 17.9%)
$20.62
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$16.66
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.1%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$15.15
(+2%)
Market implied 1.1%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$10.19
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$17.03
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MAT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAT price and gamma walls.
