JBSS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JBSS - John B. Sanfilippo & SON
$76.71
0.54 (0.71%)
▲
5d:
+2.4%
30d:
-5.81%
90d:
-7.76%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JBSS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: JBSS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.41
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JBSS is currently trading at $76.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.10 to $80.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JBSS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.90, while resistance sits at $79.72.
Market Sentiment: JBSS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Implied Volatility is high (74th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.00 (+42.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JBSS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.90, while resistance sits at $79.72.
Market Sentiment: JBSS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Implied Volatility is high (74th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.00 (+42.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$76.10 -
$80.95
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
74th percentile
(ELEVATED)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 74th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.1% below Wall St target ($109.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.1% growth with 8.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.10 -
$80.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.39
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.90
Resistance Level
$79.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.68
Wall Street Target
$109.00
(+42.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.9%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$79.97
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$81.64
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$76.86
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.2%)
$203.72
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 12.2%)
$108.25
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$92.01
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.71
Bull Case
$96.33
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$87.58
(+14%)
Market implied 15.0%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$51.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 11:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JBSS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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