JRVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JRVR - James River Group Holdings, Ltd
$6.30
0.03 (0.48%)
▲
5d:
+1.12%
30d:
-11.64%
90d:
-0.16%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JRVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JRVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.79
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JRVR is currently trading at $6.30, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.21 to $6.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.1) is in line with its historical norms (5.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JRVR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.67 (+21.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JRVR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.67 (+21.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$6.21 -
$6.77
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($7.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.21 -
$6.77
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.49
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.92
Resistance Level
$6.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.08
Wall Street Target
$7.67
(+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.3%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 5.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.17
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$6.05
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$5.93
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
$6.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$34.11
(+441%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$7.75
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 7.2%)
$6.59
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$10.09
(+61%)
Analyst growth 49.5%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$9.18
(+47%)
Market implied 49.5%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$4.18
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 5.4
Stabilization Target:
$6.70
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JRVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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