KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$176.27
-8.47 (-4.58%)
▼
5d:
-3.0%
30d:
-7.39%
90d:
+34.55%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$216.14
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $176.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $178.56 to $188.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $172.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $172.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$178.56 -
$188.38
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($159.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$178.56 -
$188.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.51
Resistance Level
$194.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.22
Wall Street Target
$159.33
(-9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.2%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.21
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$180.17
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$182.15
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$176.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.7%)
$279.18
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 5.7%)
$207.96
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 5.7%)
$176.76
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.16
Bull Case
$241.04
(+37%)
Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$219.12
(+24%)
Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$125.62
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
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