KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$166.40
-2.89 (-1.71%)
▼
5d:
-7.76%
30d:
+12.17%
90d:
+18.38%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211.00
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $166.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.54 to $179.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 183.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $166.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $166.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$151.54 -
$179.30
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($165.25)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.54 -
$179.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$166.62
Resistance Level
$183.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.39
Wall Street Target
$165.25
(-0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.2%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$166.23
(0%)
2-Year Target
$166.07
(0%)
3-Year Target
$165.90
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$166.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$281.91
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 5.7%)
$196.30
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$166.85
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.18
Bull Case
$219.35
(+32%)
Analyst growth 17.8%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$199.41
(+20%)
Market implied 17.8%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$115.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$166.52
(+0.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 19, 2026 12:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
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