KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$34.39
-0.42 (-1.21%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.40
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.91
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $34.39, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.43 to $34.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $30.25. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $30.25. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$29.43 -
$34.39
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.0% above Wall St target ($30.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.43 -
$34.39
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.77
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.19
Resistance Level
$35.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.45
Wall Street Target
$30.25
(-12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.15
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$33.91
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$33.67
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$34.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$58.45
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$48.36
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 12.0%)
$41.10
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$58.59
(+70%)
Analyst growth 55.3%, PE expands to 31.4
Base Case
$53.26
(+55%)
Market implied 55.3%, PE stable at 28.6
Bear Case
$23.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$35.04
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced KMT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KMT price and gamma walls.
