KREF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KREF - KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
$6.27
0.17 (2.79%)
▲
5d:
-2.18%
30d:
-9.78%
90d:
-26.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KREF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KREF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.08
Based on 1.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.40
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KREF is currently trading at $6.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.46 to $7.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.04, while resistance sits at $6.75.
Market Sentiment: KREF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.62 (+37.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.04, while resistance sits at $6.75.
Market Sentiment: KREF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.62 (+37.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$6.46 -
$7.09
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.6% below Wall St target ($8.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.46 -
$7.09
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.04
Resistance Level
$6.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.54
Wall Street Target
$8.63
(+37.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
245.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.1%
Profit Margin
-297.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.15
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$6.03
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$5.92
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$6.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -1.5%)
$12.71
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: -1.5%)
$5.99
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: -1.5%)
$5.09
(-19%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$6.66
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KREF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ralph F Rosenberg
SELL
125289 shares
2025-12-03
Christen E.J. Lee
BUY
10000 shares
2025-11-07
Matthew A Salem
BUY
32000 shares
2025-11-06
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