LITE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$391.84
10.40 (2.73%)
ā²
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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3 traders called LITE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$444.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$275.80
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $391.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $344.30 to $387.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.8) compared to its historical average (68.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $317.44, while resistance sits at $406.25.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $317.44, while resistance sits at $406.25.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$344.30 -
$387.67
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LITE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($348.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$344.30 -
$387.67
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$317.44
Resistance Level
$406.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.81
Wall Street Target
$348.38
(-8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.1%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.8 vs 68.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$343.30
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$308.97
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$278.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42ā69)
$456.28
(+20%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.8, Growth: 55.9%)
$1287.36
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 55.9%)
$686.68
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 55.9%)
$583.68
(+53%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 65.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.00
Bull Case
$473.15
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 68.6
Base Case
$391.84
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 65.4
Bear Case
$299.76
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 58.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.8 to 68.6
Stabilization Target:
$625.89
(+64.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+64.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LITE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yuen Wupen
SELL
3281 shares
2025-08-27
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SELL
2526 shares
2025-08-26
Yuen Wupen
SELL
3282 shares
2025-08-25
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Advanced LITE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.
