MAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$20.89
0.12 (0.58%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.49
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.31
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $20.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.08 to $21.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.10, while resistance sits at $21.68.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.00 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.10, while resistance sits at $21.68.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.00 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$20.08 -
$21.41
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with -5.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.08 -
$21.41
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.10
Resistance Level
$21.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.84
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.3%
Profit Margin
8.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.85
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$20.94
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$21.02
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.1%)
$53.70
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 11.1%)
$28.52
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 11.1%)
$24.24
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$29.73
(+42%)
Analyst growth 32.9%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$27.03
(+29%)
Market implied 32.9%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$13.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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