MAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAT - Mattel, Inc.
$14.30
-0.32 (-2.19%)
▼
5d:
-3.57%
30d:
-16.28%
90d:
-28.48%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MAT is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $19 2026-05-15 with 738 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.52
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.19
29.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAT is currently trading at $14.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.12 to $16.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.36 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.36 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$15.12 -
$16.97
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.4% below Wall St target ($19.36)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.12 -
$16.97
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.44
Resistance Level
$16.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.31
Wall Street Target
$19.36
(+35.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.5%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 11.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.43
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$12.61
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$11.84
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$14.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 23.6%)
$64.89
(+354%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 23.6%)
$26.98
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 23.6%)
$22.93
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$20.22
(+34%)
Analyst growth 24.0%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$18.38
(+22%)
Market implied 24.0%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$10.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$17.20
(+20.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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