MAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAX - MediaAlpha, Inc.
$9.08
-0.22 (-2.37%)
▼
5d:
-3.81%
30d:
-11.33%
90d:
-30.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
MAX is down 5.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-05-15 with 6,008 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 1412% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 1412% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.77
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.93
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAX is currently trading at $9.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.14 to $10.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1412.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.79 (+51.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.79 (+51.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$9.14 -
$10.14
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.8% below Wall St target ($13.79)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.14 -
$10.14
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.84
(9.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.03
Resistance Level
$9.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.11
Wall Street Target
$13.79
(+51.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1412.2%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.64
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$8.21
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$7.81
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$9.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$37.16
(+309%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 3.8%)
$10.17
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 3.8%)
$8.64
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.39
Bull Case
$21.10
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$19.18
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$6.52
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.54
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Yi
SELL
4000 shares
2026-03-18
Eugene Nonko
SELL
1899 shares
2026-03-17
Eugene Nonko
SELL
404 shares
2026-03-17
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Advanced MAX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAX price and gamma walls.
