MCFT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCFT - MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$20.51
-0.08 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
-5.0%
30d:
-6.39%
90d:
+5.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MCFT is down 8.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $25 2026-04-17 with 20 OI. Call ratio: 91% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCFT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCFT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.01
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.98
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCFT is currently trading at $20.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.84 to $21.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.38, while resistance sits at $22.05.
Market Sentiment: MCFT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.00 (+21.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.38, while resistance sits at $22.05.
Market Sentiment: MCFT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.00 (+21.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$19.84 -
$21.86
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCFT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($25.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.84 -
$21.86
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.48
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.38
Resistance Level
$22.05
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.07
Wall Street Target
$25.00
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.42
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$18.39
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$17.42
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$20.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.0%)
$56.24
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 14.0%)
$30.39
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 14.0%)
$25.83
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.94
Bull Case
$40.15
(+89%)
Analyst growth 80.7%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$36.50
(+72%)
Market implied 80.7%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$13.74
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$24.12
(+17.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 2:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCFT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fund L.P. Forager
SELL
26497 shares
2026-02-20
Fund L.P. Forager
SELL
30131 shares
2026-02-19
Fund L.P. Forager
SELL
19050 shares
2026-02-18
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Advanced MCFT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCFT price and gamma walls.
