Is MCHP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MCHP is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: MCHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MCHP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MCHP to be between $73.26 and $79.26. The current price is $67.81.

What is the analyst price target for MCHP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MCHP is $86.67. This implies a potential upside of 24.0% from current levels.

MCHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MCHP - Microchip Technology Inc

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$67.81

-2.09 (-2.99%) ▼

5d: -9.55%

30d: -11.54%

90d: +19.57%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MCHP Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 06, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

MCHP is down 7.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $75 2026-04-17 with 1,658 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →

Strength: 4.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$129.31

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$80.29

15.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MCHP is currently trading at $67.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.26 to $79.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.3) compared to its historical average (36.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MCHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.67 (+24.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $73.26 - $79.26

Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 24.0% below Wall St target ($86.67)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.6% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $73.26 - $79.26

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $69.00

Resistance Level $79.18

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 5, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.32

Wall Street Target $86.67 (+24.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 15.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -81.6%

Profit Margin -1.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -10.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 26.3 vs 36.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -10.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $62.91 (-10%)

2-Year Target $56.62 (-19%)

3-Year Target $50.96 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 26→36) $70.48 (+1%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.3, Growth: 69.3%) $235.91 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.6, Growth: 69.3%) $202.51 (+190%)

Bear: (PE: 19.2, Growth: 69.3%) $172.14 (+146%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.3 to 36.4

Stabilization Target: $96.69 (+38.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +38.3%

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Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Steve Sanghi SELL 98814 shares 2026-01-28

Steve Sanghi SELL 18509 shares 2026-01-22

James Eric Bjornholt SELL 4292 shares 2025-11-25

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCHP price and gamma walls.

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