MCW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCW - Mister Car Wash, Inc.
$5.55
0.11 (2.02%)
▲
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.15
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCW is currently trading at $5.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.56 to $6.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCW is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.28, while resistance sits at $6.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.38 (+35.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCW is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.28, while resistance sits at $6.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.38 (+35.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$5.56 -
$6.00
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
100th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 100th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.7% below Wall St target ($7.38)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.56 -
$6.00
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.58
(28.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.28
Resistance Level
$6.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.39
Wall Street Target
$7.38
(+35.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5.27
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$5.18
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$5.41
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.0%)
$14.58
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 11.0%)
$7.45
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 11.0%)
$6.33
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.27
Bull Case
$10.50
(+89%)
Analyst growth 76.9%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$9.55
(+72%)
Market implied 76.9%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$3.67
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 11.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.68
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MCW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCW price and gamma walls.
