MELI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MELI - Mercado Libre, Inc
$1613.29
51.29 (3.28%)
▲
5d:
-13.73%
30d:
-13.83%
90d:
-19.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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6 traders called MELI this week
75% bullish • 2 bearish
75% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MELI is down 13.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MELI is down 13.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3121.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1937.94
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MELI is currently trading at $1613.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1690.86 to $1876.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.4) compared to its historical average (29.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1495.00, while resistance sits at $1890.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2345.88 (+50.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1495.00, while resistance sits at $1890.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2345.88 (+50.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1690.86 -
$1876.75
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MELI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 50.2% below Wall St target ($2345.88)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1690.86 -
$1876.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1495.00
Resistance Level
$1890.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.36
Wall Street Target
$2345.88
(+50.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.6%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 29.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1468.28
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$1380.18
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$1297.37
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→29)
$1565.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 42.7%)
$4537.57
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 42.7%)
$4104.62
(+163%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 42.7%)
$3488.92
(+123%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $37.84
Bull Case
$2902.24
(+86%)
Analyst growth 69.4%, PE expands to 45.3
Base Case
$2638.40
(+69%)
Market implied 69.4%, PE stable at 41.2
Bear Case
$1058.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.4 to 29.4
Stabilization Target:
$1884.80
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 1:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MELI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
6
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-16
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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