MFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$10.12
-0.22 (-2.13%)
▼
5d:
+1.5%
30d:
+3.0%
90d:
+19.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.40
11.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $10.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.55 to $10.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.55 -
$10.06
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with -6.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.55 -
$10.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.45
Resistance Level
$9.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.98
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.34
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$10.57
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$10.80
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.06
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 30.0%)
$69.46
(+586%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 30.0%)
$22.26
(+120%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 30.0%)
$18.92
(+87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$11.14
(+10%)
Analyst growth -2.0%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$10.13
(+0%)
Market implied -2.0%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$7.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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