MFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$9.63
0.10 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
+2.67%
30d:
+0.94%
90d:
-7.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.70
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $9.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.12 to $9.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (6.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.25 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.25 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.12 -
$9.57
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.2% growth with -6.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.12 -
$9.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.11
Resistance Level
$9.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.41
Wall Street Target
$11.25
(+16.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.13
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$10.66
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$11.21
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.69
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 20.4%)
$50.11
(+420%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 20.4%)
$16.80
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 20.4%)
$14.28
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$9.35
(-2%)
Analyst growth -12.2%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$8.50
(-11%)
Market implied -12.2%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$6.58
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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