MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$29.56
0.75 (2.60%)
▲
5d:
+6.33%
30d:
+3.57%
90d:
+10.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.15
Based on -1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $29.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.27 to $30.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.13, while resistance sits at $31.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.83 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.13, while resistance sits at $31.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.83 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$28.27 -
$30.36
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.27 -
$30.36
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.13
Resistance Level
$31.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.45
Wall Street Target
$33.83
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 13.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.20
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$26.90
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$25.67
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$29.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -6.2%)
$47.04
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: -6.2%)
$24.40
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: -6.2%)
$20.74
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$47.31
(+60%)
Analyst growth 49.3%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$43.01
(+46%)
Market implied 49.3%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$19.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$34.09
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 10:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward P Djerejian
SELL
18000 shares
2026-03-10
Brian Corales
SELL
33000 shares
2026-03-09
Christopher G Stavros
SELL
119954 shares
2026-03-09
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