MGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock
$25.20
0.22 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-7.35%
30d:
-9.19%
90d:
-16.47%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.09
Based on -3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGY is currently trading at $25.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.25 to $27.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.76 (+34.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.76 (+34.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.25 -
$27.95
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.0% below Wall St target ($33.76)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.25 -
$27.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.84
Resistance Level
$28.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.60
Wall Street Target
$33.76
(+34.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.01
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$21.01
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$19.18
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$25.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -11.5%)
$41.66
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -11.5%)
$18.37
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: -11.5%)
$15.62
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$41.67
(+65%)
Analyst growth 51.7%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$37.88
(+50%)
Market implied 51.7%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$16.99
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$33.06
(+31.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 1:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward P Djerejian
SELL
18000 shares
2026-03-10
Brian Corales
SELL
33000 shares
2026-03-09
Christopher G Stavros
SELL
119954 shares
2026-03-09
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