MOV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOV - Movado Group, Inc.
$37.61
-0.36 (-0.95%)
▼
5d:
-1.26%
30d:
+0.29%
90d:
+52.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOV is currently trading at $37.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.51 to $39.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.4) compared to its historical average (18.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.40, while resistance sits at $38.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.50 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.40, while resistance sits at $38.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.50 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$35.51 -
$39.30
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($47.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.8% growth expectation is conservative given 400% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.51 -
$39.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.05
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.40
Resistance Level
$38.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.42
Wall Street Target
$47.50
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
400.0%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.8% premium
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 18.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.67
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$46.17
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$51.16
(+36%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 34.3%)
$91.03
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 34.3%)
$81.18
(+116%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.0, Growth: 34.3%)
$67.09
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$45.62
(+21%)
Analyst growth 9.2%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$41.47
(+10%)
Market implied 9.2%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$25.82
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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