MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
$240.71
2.55 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
-3.06%
30d:
+9.03%
90d:
+48.01%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MPC is down 3.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $250 2026-06-18 with 2,263 OI. Call ratio: 80% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MPC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211.67
Based on -2.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $240.71, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.31 to $242.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.92, while resistance sits at $255.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.92, while resistance sits at $255.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$208.31 -
$242.08
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MPC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($217.44)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$208.31 -
$242.08
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.92
Resistance Level
$255.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.72
Wall Street Target
$217.44
(-8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
350.7%
Profit Margin
3.0%
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$238.16
(0%)
2-Year Target
$238.16
(0%)
3-Year Target
$238.16
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$237.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -8.4%)
$297.68
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: -8.4%)
$182.77
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: -8.4%)
$155.36
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.23
Bull Case
$289.64
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$263.31
(+13%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$158.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 1:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1626 shares
2026-03-13
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1037 shares
2026-03-12
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1810 shares
2026-03-11
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Advanced MPC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPC price and gamma walls.
