MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
$247.76
-4.15 (-1.65%)
▼
5d:
+6.55%
30d:
+25.0%
90d:
+51.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MPC is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $220 2026-04-17 with 709 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MPC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.08
Based on -4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $247.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.70 to $239.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (13.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.92, while resistance sits at $255.77.
Market Sentiment: MPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $216.17. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.92, while resistance sits at $255.77.
Market Sentiment: MPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $216.17. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$203.70 -
$239.61
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
MPC is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.2% above Wall St target ($216.17)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.1% growth expectation is conservative given 351% recent growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$203.70 -
$239.61
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.92
Resistance Level
$255.77
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.89
Wall Street Target
$216.17
(-14.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
350.7%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 13.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$264.76
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$278.26
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$292.45
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$252.21
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -11.9%)
$258.94
(+3%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: -11.9%)
$183.64
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: -11.9%)
$156.10
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.23
Bull Case
$289.64
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$263.31
(+13%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$158.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1626 shares
2026-03-13
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1037 shares
2026-03-12
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1810 shares
2026-03-11
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Advanced MPC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPC price and gamma walls.
