MPTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPTI - M-tron Industries, Inc.
$91.02
-9.73 (-9.66%)
▼
5d:
-0.35%
30d:
-0.61%
90d:
+26.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPTI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPTI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.07
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPTI is currently trading at $91.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.31 to $97.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.9) compared to its historical average (22.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $83.78, while resistance sits at $96.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $83.78, while resistance sits at $96.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$89.31 -
$97.34
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.7%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.0% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.31 -
$97.34
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.78
Resistance Level
$96.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.93
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(-7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 22.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.57
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$100.35
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$105.37
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$91.02
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 32.0%)
$209.13
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.0%)
$175.65
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 32.0%)
$149.30
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.64
Bull Case
$145.01
(+59%)
Analyst growth 33.0%, PE expands to 41.3
Base Case
$131.82
(+45%)
Market implied 33.0%, PE stable at 37.6
Bear Case
$67.42
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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