MPTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPTI - M-tron Industries, Inc.
$79.40
0.29 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-2.22%
30d:
+21.0%
90d:
+28.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPTI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MPTI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$148.36
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.12
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPTI is currently trading at $79.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.48 to $74.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (21.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.95, while resistance sits at $87.23.
Market Sentiment: MPTI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.95, while resistance sits at $87.23.
Market Sentiment: MPTI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$63.48 -
$74.36
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($81.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.48 -
$74.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.95
Resistance Level
$87.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.30
Wall Street Target
$81.50
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 21.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.51
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$81.64
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$82.78
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$79.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 39.6%)
$216.05
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 39.6%)
$213.79
(+169%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 39.6%)
$181.72
(+129%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.67
Bull Case
$116.03
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.3%, PE expands to 32.6
Base Case
$105.48
(+33%)
Market implied 33.3%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$53.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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