MSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSI - Motorola Solutions, Inc. New
$402.54
-0.61 (-0.15%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$507.23
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$314.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSI is currently trading at $402.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $375.91 to $394.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.7) is in line with its historical norms (23.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $390.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $487.90 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $390.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $487.90 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$375.91 -
$394.21
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($487.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$375.91 -
$394.21
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$390.65
Resistance Level
$410.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.67
Wall Street Target
$487.90
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 23.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$409.38
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$416.34
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$423.42
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$401.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.7, Growth: 7.7%)
$502.53
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$454.32
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$386.17
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.47
Bull Case
$583.13
(+45%)
Analyst growth 30.9%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$530.12
(+32%)
Market implied 30.9%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$275.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Gregory Q Brown
SELL
50000 shares
2025-09-12
James A Niewiara
SELL
1700 shares
2025-09-11
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