MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$120.36
-0.78 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
+3.16%
30d:
+2.89%
90d:
+32.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.01
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $120.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.12 to $119.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (20.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$112.12 -
$119.49
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($125.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.12 -
$119.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.04
Resistance Level
$119.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.42
Wall Street Target
$125.67
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.38
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$129.77
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$134.31
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$121.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.5%)
$196.47
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.5%)
$190.87
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$162.24
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$174.22
(+44%)
Analyst growth 30.5%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$158.38
(+31%)
Market implied 30.5%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$82.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 10:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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