MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$122.78
-0.56 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
+2.86%
30d:
+6.61%
90d:
+34.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MSM trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$162.04
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$100.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $122.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.12 to $119.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.0) compared to its historical average (20.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $108.67. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $108.67. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$112.12 -
$119.49
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.5% above Wall St target ($108.67)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.12 -
$119.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.04
Resistance Level
$119.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.97
Wall Street Target
$108.67
(-11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
24.0 vs 20.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$130.02
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$137.70
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$145.82
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$122.91
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.0, Growth: 14.9%)
$186.39
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.9%)
$169.39
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 14.9%)
$143.98
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$167.90
(+37%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 32.8
Base Case
$152.63
(+24%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 29.8
Bear Case
$83.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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