MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$106.82
0.06 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
+2.41%
30d:
+12.79%
90d:
+16.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.53
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $106.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.88 to $104.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (19.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $93.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $93.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$94.88 -
$104.52
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.5% above Wall St target ($93.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$94.88 -
$104.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.63
Resistance Level
$108.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.61
Wall Street Target
$93.50
(-12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 19.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.77
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$114.87
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$119.12
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$106.96
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.8%)
$160.73
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$157.56
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 13.8%)
$133.93
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$156.08
(+46%)
Analyst growth 32.9%, PE expands to 31.6
Base Case
$141.89
(+33%)
Market implied 32.9%, PE stable at 28.7
Bear Case
$72.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Mitchell Jacobson
BUY
22870 shares
2025-11-18
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