MTCH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTCH - Match Group, Inc
$31.15
0.13 (0.42%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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1 traders called MTCH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTCH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTCH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.73
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.64
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTCH is currently trading at $31.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.34 to $32.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTCH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTCH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.59 (+21.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTCH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTCH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.59 (+21.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$31.34 -
$32.54
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTCH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($37.59)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$31.34 -
$32.54
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.33
Resistance Level
$32.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.18
Wall Street Target
$37.59
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.55
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$30.10
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$29.64
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$31.17
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.9%)
$118.42
(+282%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 11.9%)
$43.43
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 11.9%)
$36.92
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$61.14
(+96%)
Analyst growth 77.2%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$55.58
(+78%)
Market implied 77.2%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$21.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$32.62
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTCH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Philip D Eigenmann
SELL
6531 shares
2025-09-03
Ann Mcdaniel
SELL
5423 shares
2025-08-27
Stephen Bailey
SELL
12500 shares
2025-08-07
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