MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$50.18
1.14 (2.32%)
▲
5d:
+0.04%
30d:
-10.39%
90d:
-17.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.45
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.20
27.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $50.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.07 to $54.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.05 (+43.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.05 (+43.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$50.07 -
$54.80
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.6% below Wall St target ($72.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.07 -
$54.80
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.93
Resistance Level
$56.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.70
Wall Street Target
$72.05
(+43.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 8.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.16
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$40.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$36.58
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$52.59
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$286.12
(+470%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$74.93
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$63.69
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.88
Bull Case
$110.40
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$100.36
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$34.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$72.14
(+43.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Joseph Wm Foran
BUY
468 shares
2026-02-27
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
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