MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$60.34
2.40 (4.14%)
▲
5d:
+9.19%
30d:
+2.44%
90d:
+26.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.19
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.63
19.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $60.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.97 to $62.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.12, while resistance sits at $63.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.22 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.12, while resistance sits at $63.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.22 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$56.97 -
$62.34
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($73.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.97 -
$62.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.12
Resistance Level
$63.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.14
Wall Street Target
$73.22
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.36
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$52.64
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$49.16
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$60.63
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.3%)
$293.50
(+386%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 16.3%)
$94.90
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 16.3%)
$80.66
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.88
Bull Case
$130.37
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$118.52
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$40.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$74.41
(+23.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Joseph Wm Foran
BUY
468 shares
2026-02-27
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
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