MTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$26.09
0.37 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
+0.85%
30d:
-1.66%
90d:
-12.42%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.46
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.88
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $26.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.87 to $26.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$25.87 -
$26.68
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.87 -
$26.68
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.49
Resistance Level
$26.46
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.86
Wall Street Target
$28.17
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Profit Margin
60.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.44
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$24.80
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$24.18
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$26.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.8%)
$95.52
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 8.8%)
$33.58
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 8.8%)
$28.55
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.14
Bull Case
$29.84
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.7%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$27.13
(+5%)
Market implied 5.7%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$17.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$28.22
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paula C Maggio
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
Salvatore A Miosi
SELL
30000 shares
2026-02-02
Timothy J Mattke
SELL
139203 shares
2026-01-13
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